International football tournaments always have a unique aura. The reasons for it are many, from the special passion which comes with rooting for your country to the unpredictable and nerve-racking matches in the knockouts.
Another unique feature of such tournaments, which sets them apart from national leagues, are the so-called ‘groups of death’. It sometimes happens that three or even four equally-deservingcountries are drawn into the same group and the tournament rules allow only two of them to advance.
Some recent such examples would be Spain, Italy, Croatia and Albania being placed in the same group at UEFA Euro 2024 or Portugal, South Korea, Uruguay and Ghana at the FIFA World Cup 2022.
Besides the excitement they bring, these groups of death are of special interest for betting fans. The odds in these matches are often very high, even for top teams, because the games are expected to be evenly matched. This gives fans a chance to place bets on very attractive odds, whether using betting offers or their own funds. But are there better strategies for these kinds of bets? Let’s find out.
Both Teams To Score
Firstly, there is the need to specify that not all groups of death are made equal. Even when two teams are considered to be of similar strength and both on a good run of form, there are other important details to keep in mind such as tactics and style of play. So, the most optimal betting strategy is one that takes into account everything said above.
Nevertheless, one popular betting option on matches between favourites is both teams scoring. This type of wager may be especially fruitful when two attack-minded teams are going head to head or when the situation in the group requires a win for one of the teams to progress.
To take a recent example, Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 on the last matchday in Group D at UEFA Euro 2024. Both teams needed the win to ensure their play-off spots, so they were required to go all out from the first minute.
Total Goals Over 2.5
High-scoring matches are also quite common in these high-stakes matches. When the opponents are comparable in terms of quality and talent, even the smallest error could result in a scoring chance for the opposition.
Alternatively, there is very little margin for error in groups of death because every dropped point reduces the chances of making it to the next stage. So, when a team finds itself down, they have no choice but to attack. And they either manage to turn the score around or leave too much space behind and get punished for it.
The fans will remember how at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, Cameroon lost to Senegal 3-1 after opening up too much in the final minutes of the game, right when it looked like they were close to making the score 2-2.
Final Result – Draw
Betting on a draw is an often underrated and overlooked strategy despite the enticing odds offered by the bookmakers. It may be more fun to bet on a win or a large number of goals but whether the fans like it or not, some matches end in draws. Predictable and boring draws.
This can happen because the 90 minutes were not enough for one of the sides to get on top. And other times, it happens because a draw is good enough for one of the teams.
On the last matchday in Group B at the UEFA Euro 2024, the game between Italy and Croatia ended in a 1-1 draw. For the Italians, the one point was enough to secure the play-offs and it would have been crazy for them to needlessly risk it. And although the equaliser from Gli Azzurri came only in the added time, the final result was anything but a surprise.
Total Number of Cards
Besides goals and final scores, there are other quantifiable aspects of football such as yellow or red cards. While red cards are typically rare and difficult to foresee, yellow-card offences are much more common and easier to predict.
When there is a clash between two heavyweights, it is reasonable to expect that there will be a high number of bookable fouls.
Such teams play with higher intensity, at higher speeds, which can lead to dangerous tackles. Besides, since the cost of a mistake is incredibly high, the defenders tend to commit tactical fouls in order to disrupt a potentially-dangerous attack.
The match officials have no choice but to bring out the yellow cards when that happens. And foul after foul, the total number of cards in the match can add up to four or even higher.
